A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
